Metodología de decisión para determinar la mejor estrategia de operación de un sistema de poliductos en Ecopetrol
No. 24 (2006-11-01)Author(s)
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Mario CastilloMatemático, M.Sc. en Administración y en Análisis y probabilidad. Profesor Asociado, Departamento de Ingeniería Industrial, Universidad de los Andes. Bogotá D.C., Colombia. mcastill@uniandes.edu.co
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Álvaro MendozaIngeniero Industrial, M.Sc. en Ingeniería Industrial. Instructor, Departamento de Ingeniería Industrial, Universidad de los Andes, Bogotá D.C., Colombia. a-mendoz@uniandes.edu.co
Abstract
The Colombian Petroleum Company ECOPETROL has finished the construction of a new pipeline. The company must select the best alternative to operate the pipeline system that transports and provides fuel to the capital of the country for the next 20 years. This article presents a structured decision analysis methodology that considers quantitative and qualitative decision criteria to select the best alternative. The alternative is supported in simulation and risk analysis models, and in Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP).
Keywords:
Pipeline system, decision analysis, risk analysis, Montecarlo simulation, analytic hierarchy process