Revista de Ingeniería

revinge | eISSN 2011-0049 | ISSN 0121-4993

Probabilistic Seismic Risk Assessment of Bogota and Manizales with and Without the Influence of Caldas Tear Fault

No. 38 (2013-01-01)
  • Mario Andrés Salgado-Gálvez
    (1) MSc en Ingeniería Civil, Universidad de los Andes, Bogotá, Colombia. mario.sal.gal@gmail.com
  • Daniela Zuloaga-Romero
    (2) Estudiante de maestría, Illinois Institute of Technology, Chicago, Estados Unidos. dzuloaga@hawk.iit.edu
  • Omar D. Cardona-Arboleda
    (3) Ph.D. Ingeniería Sísmica y Dinámica Estructural. Profesor, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, sede Manizales, Colombia. odcardonaa@unal.edu.co
https://doi.org/10.16924/revinge.38.1

Abstract

The new tectonic interpretation proposing the existence of a fault called Caldas Tear has led to a seismic hazard assessment at national level using the same methodology and information of the seismic hazard study updated for the national building code NSR-10. Both results are used for a probabilistic seismic risk assessment of Bogotá and Manizales obtaining the loss exceedance curve, probable maximum losses, and the average annual loss. For the estimation of the future losses on the buildings of both cities, microzonations are taken into account. The comparison presents a decrease and increase of seismic risk in Bogotá and Manizales respectively.

Keywords: Seismic risk, Probabilistic risk assessment, seismic hazard