A mathematical modeling approach to study on campus transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2

The effect of non-pharmacological interventions to contain the spread of SARS-CoV-2 have caused negative impacts, especially in education. Re-opening schools and universities is regarded as a high risk scenario. This paper seeks to understand, with the help of mathematical modeling, possible mechanisms through which the virus could spread in an academic environment and to quantify contagions attributable to participating in academic activities. To simulate the dynamics of contagion at the University, an agent-based mathematical model that incorporated stochastic differential equations was built using academic data for the University´s 2020-2 semester. The model suggests that hybrid-attendance combined with epidemiological surveillance can produce very safe operating conditions without significantly contributing towards more COVID infections in the city of Bogotá.