Ley de Okun y política fiscal: análisis para América Latina mediante un modelo TVP-VAR-SV

Alesina, A., Ardagna, S., Perotti, R., & Schiantarelli, F. (2002). Fiscal policy, profits, and investment. American Economic Review, 92(3), 571-589. https://doi.org/10.1257/00028280260136255

Attfield, C. L., & Silverstone, B. (1998). Okun’s law, cointegration and gap variables. Journal of Macroeconomics, 20(3), 625-637. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0164-0704(98)00076-7

Auerbach, A. J., & Gorodnichenko, Y. (2012). Measuring the output responses to fiscal policy. American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 4(2), 1-27. https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.4.2.1

Bassanini, A., & Duval, R. (2006). Employment patterns in OECD countries: Reassessing the role of policies and institutions. Working Papers, 486. https://www.oecd.org/content/dam/oecd/en/publications/ reports/2006/06/employment-patterns-in-oecd-countries_g17a17ce/702031136412.pdf

Berger, T., Everaert, G., & Vierke, H. (2016). Testing for time variation in an unobserved components model for the US economy. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 69, 179-208. https://doi.org/10.1016/j. jedc.2016.05.017

Bernanke, B. (1986). Alternative explorations of the money-income correlation. Working Paper, 1842. https://doi.org/10.3386/w1842

Blanchard, O. J., Nordhaus, W. D., & Phelps, E. S. (1997). The medium run. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1997(2), 89-158. https://doi.org/10.2307/2534687

Bova, E., Kolerus, C., & Tapsoba, S. J. (2015). A fiscal job? An analysis of fiscal policy and the labor market. IZA Journal of Labor Policy, 4(1). https://doi.org/10.1186/s40173-015-0041-x

Burnside, C., Eichenbaum, M., & Fisher, J. D. (2004). Fiscal shocks and their consequences. Journal of Economic Theory, 115(1), 89-117. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-0531(03)00252-7

Cahuc, P., & Zylberberg, A. (2004). Labor econo¬mics. MIT Press.

Canova, F., Ferroni, F., & Matthes, C. (2015). Approximating time varying structural models with time invariant structures. Banque de France Working Paper, 578. https://www.richmondfed.org/-/media/ RichmondFedOrg/publications/research/working_papers/2015/pdf/wp15-10.pdf

Card, D., Kluve, J., & Weber, A. (2010). Active labour market policy evaluations: A meta‐analysis. The Economic Journal, 120(548), F452-F477. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0297.2010.02387.x

Choi, I. (2001). Unit root tests for panel data. Journal of International Money and Finance, 20(2), 249-272. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0261-5606(00)00048-6

Cogley, T., & Sargent, T. J. (2005). Drifts and vola¬tilities: Monetary policies and outcomes in the post WWII US. Review of Economic Dynamics, 8(2), 262-302. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.red.2004.10.009

Cottarelli, C. (2012). Fiscal policy and employment in advanced and emerging economies. International Monetary Fund. https://www.imf.org/external/np/ pp/eng/2012/061512.pdf

Crowley, P. M., & Hudgins, D. (2021). Okun’s law revi¬sited in the time-frequency domain: Introducing unemployment into a wavelet-based control model. Empirical Economics, 61(5), 2635-2662. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-020-01980-7

Daly, M. C., Fernald, J. G., Jordà, Ò., & Nechio, F. (2013). Okun’s macroscope and the changing cyclicality of underlying margins of adjustment. Working Paper, 32.

Daly, M. C., Fernald, J. G., Jordà, Ò., & Nechio, F. F. (2014). Interpreting deviations from Okun’s Law. Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, 12. https://www.frbsf.org/wp-content/uploads/el2014-12.pdf

De Mooij, R., & Keen, M. (2013). “Fiscal devalua¬tion” and fiscal consolidation: The VAT in troubled times. En A. Alesina, & F. Giavazzi (eds.), Fiscal policy after the financial crisis (pp. 443-485). University of Chicago Press. https://doi.org/10.7208/ chicago/9780226018584.003.0012

Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1979). Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(366a), 427-431. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1979.10482531

Disney, R. (2004). Are contributions to public pension programmes a tax on employment? Economic Policy, 19(39), 268-311. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0327.2004.00124.x

Dixon, R., Lim, G. C., & Van Ours, J. C. (2017). Revisiting the Okun relationship. Applied Economics, 49(28), 2749-2765. https://doi.org/10.1080/0003 6846.2016.1245846

Fatás, A., & Mihov, I. (2001). The effects of fiscal policy on consumption and employment: Theory and evidence. CEPR Discussion Paper, 2760. https://faculty.insead.edu/fatas/fiscal.pdf

Foroni, C., & Furlanetto, F. (2025). Explaining deviations from Okun’s law. European Economic Review, 182, 105205. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105205

Furceri, D., Jalles, J. T., & Loungani, P. (2020). On the determinants of the Okun’s law: New evidence from time-varying estimates. Comparative Economic Studies, 62(4), 661-700. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41294-019-00111-1

Galí, J., López-Salido, J. D., & Vallés, J. (2007). Understanding the effects of government spending on consumption. Journal of the European Economic Association, 5(1), 227-270. https://doi.org/10.1162/JEEA.2007.5.1.227

Gechert, S., Horn, G., & Paetz, C. (2019). Long‐term effects of fiscal stimulus and austerity in Europe. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 81(3), 647-666. https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12287

Gemmel, N., Kneller, R., & Sainz, I. (2009). The compo¬sition of government expenditure and economic growth. En Barrios, L., Pench, A., & Schaechter, A. (eds.), European Economy: The Quality of Public Finance and Economic Growth.

Giavazzi, F., & McMahon, M. (2012). The household effects of government spending. En A. Alesina, & F. Giavazzi (eds.), Fiscal policy after the financial crisis (pp. 103-141). University of Chicago Press. https://www.nber.org/system/files/chapters/ c12636/c12636.pdf

Hemming, R., Kell, M., & Mahfouz, S. (2002). The effectiveness of fiscal policy in stimulating economic activity: A review of the literature. (Working Paper, 02/208). IMF. https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ ft/wp/2002/wp02208.pdf

Im, K. S., Pesaran, M. H., & Shin, Y. (2003). Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels. Journal of Econometrics, 115(1), 53-74. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(03)00092-7

Karagyozova-Markova, K., Deyanov, G., & Iliev, V. (2013). Fiscal policy and economic growth in Bulgaria. Bulgarian National Bank Discussion Paper, 90. https://www.bnb.bg/bnbweb/groups/public/documents/ bnb_publication/discussion_2013_90_en.pdf

Krueger, A. B., & Meyer, B. D. (2002). Labor supply effects of social insurance. Handbook of Public Economics, 4, 2327-2392. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1573-4420(02)80012-X

Kwiatkowski, D., Phillips, P. C., Schmidt, P., & Shin, Y. (1992). Testing the null hypothesis of stationa¬rity against the alternative of a unit root: How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root? Journal of Econometrics, 54(1-3), 159-178. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(92)90104-Y

Lim, G. C., Dixon, R., & van Ours, J. C. (2021). Beyond Okun’s law: Output growth and labor market flows. Empirical Economics, 60(3), 1387-1409. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-019-01794-2

Litterman, R. B. (1986). Forecasting with Bayesian vector autoregressions: Five years of experience. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 4(1), 25-38. https://doi.org/10.1080/07350015.1986.10509491

Lubik, T. A., & Matthes, C. (2015). Time-varying parameter vector autoregressions: Specification, estimation, and an application. Economic Quarterly, 101(4), 323-352. https://doi.org/10.21144/eq1010403

Maddala, G. S., & Wu, S. (1999). A comparative study of unit root tests with panel data and a new simple test. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 61(S1), 631-652. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0084.0610s1631

Mitchell, K., & Pearce, D. K. (2010). Do wall street economists believe in Okun’s law and the Taylor rule? Journal of Economics and Finance, 34(2), 196-217. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12197-009-9085-3

Nakajima, J. (2011). Time-varying parameter VAR model with stochastic volatility: An overview of methodology and empirical applications. Monetary and Economic Studies, 29, 107-142. https://www.imes.boj.or.jp/research/papers/english/me29-6.pdf

Nickell, S. (1998). Unemployment: Questions and some answers. The Economic Journal, 108(448), 802-816. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0297.00316

Nunziata, L. (2002). Unemployment, labour market institutions and shocks. Working Paper in Economics, 16. https://www.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/economics/ Papers/2002/w16/p4unemploymentWP.pdf

Okun, A. M. (1962). Potential GNP: Its measurement and significance. En Proceedings of the Business and Economics Statistics (pp. 98-104). American Statistical Association

Orlandi, F. (2012). Structural unemployment and its determinants in the EU countries (Econ Papers, 455). https://ec.europa.eu/economy_ finance/publications/economic_paper/2012/pdf/ecp_455_en.pdf

Panovska, I., & Zhang, L. (2024). Jobless recove¬ries and time variation in labor markets. Journal of Macroeconomics, 81, 103623. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2024.103623

Phelps, E. S. (1994). Structural slumps: The modern equilibrium theory of unemployment, interest, and assets. Harvard University Press.

Pizzo, A. (2023). Literature review of empirical studies on Okun’s law in Latin America and the Caribbean (Working Paper, 04278489). https://hal.science/hal-04278489/document

Porras‐Arena, M. S., & Martín‐Román, Á. L. (2023). The correlation between unemployment and economic growth in Latin America-Okun’s law esti¬mates by country. International Labour Review, 162(2), 171-198. https://doi.org/10.1111/ilr.12398

Primiceri, G. E. (2005). Time varying structural vector autoregressions and monetary policy. The Review of Economic Studies, 72(3), 821-852. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-937X.2005.00353.x

Roy, V. (2020). Convergence diagnostics for Markov chain Monte Carlo. Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, 7(1), 387-412. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-statistics-031219-041300

Sims, C. A. (1980). Macroeconomics and reality. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 48(1), 1-48. https://doi.org/10.2307/1912017

Sims, C. A., & Zha, T. (2006). Were there regime switches in US monetary policy? American Economic Review, 96(1), 54-81. https://doi.org/10.1257/000282806776157678

Stock, J. H., & Watson, M. W. (2007). Why has US inflation become harder to forecast? Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 39, 3-33. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1538-4616.2007.00014.x

Turrini, A. (2013). Fiscal consolidation and unemployment: Does EPL matter? A look at EU countries. IZA Journal of Labor Policy, 2(1). https://doi.org/10.1186/2193-9004-2-8

Van Ravenzwaaij, D., Cassey, P., & Brown, S. D. (2018). A simple introduction to Markov Chain Monte-Carlo sampling. Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, 25(1), 143-154. https://doi.org/10.3758/s13423-016-1015-8

Villafuerte Malla, G. E. (2022). Crecimiento y la tasa de desempleo: Una aplicación de la Ley de Okun para América del Sur, periodo 2000-2019 [Tesis de grado, Universidad Nacional de Chimborazo]. http://dspace.unach.edu.ec/bitstream/51000/8565/1/7.-TESIS%20 GISSELA%20ESTEFANY%20VILLAFUERTE%20 MALLA-ECO.pdf

Woo, J., Bova, M. E., Kinda, M. T., & Zhang, M. Y. S. (2013). Distributional consequences of fiscal consoli¬dation and the role of fiscal policy: What do the data say? IMF Working Papers,W/13/195. https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2013/wp13195.pdf

Zanin, L., & Marra, G. (2012). Rolling regression versus time‐varying coefficient modelling: An empirical investigation of the Okun’s Law in some euro area countries. Bulletin of Economic Research, 64(1), 91-108. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8586.2010.00376.x

Derechos de autor 2026 Desarrollo y Sociedad

Esta obra está bajo una licencia internacional Creative Commons Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 4.0.