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Desarro. soc. | eISSN 1900-7760 | ISSN 0120-3584

¿Los consejos fiscales inciden sobre la gestión de las finanzas públicas nacionales? Un estudio cuasiexperimental con datos de panel

No. 96 | 2024-02-29
  • Jesús Marcano
    Instituto de Estudios Superiores de Administración (IESA)
  • Karla Sánchez
  • José Manuel Puente
    Instituto de Estudios Superiores de Administración (IESA)
https://doi.org/10.13043/DYS.96.4

Resumen

El déficit y la deuda pública de los países occidentales han aumentado de forma significativa en los últimos 30 años. En respuesta a ello, la instauración de consejos fiscales ha venido ganando popularidad como medida de contención del sesgo deficitario. Estas instituciones buscan desincentivar la gestión deficitaria mediante la provisión de información sobre el estatus de las finanzas públicas, para así aumentar el escrutinio ciudadano y motivar una administración gubernamental responsable. El presente trabajo busca evaluar la efectividad de estas instituciones siguiendo una estrategia de identificación de efectos causales basada en las técnicas de control sintético y diferencia en diferencias. En este sentido, aunque algunas estimaciones realizadas indican la existencia de impactos favorables sobre el balance primario, la mayoría de las estimaciones muestran que los consejos fiscales no influyen significativamente sobre la gestión fiscal. Por tanto, no se encontró evidencia concluyente sobre la efectividad de estas instituciones.

Palabras clave: administración fiscal, economía política, instituciones fiscales, diferencias en diferencias, control sintético

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