How is climate change adaptation aid allocated? A study of climate justice in Ecuador
PDF (English)
HTML (English)

Palabras clave

adaptación al cambio climático
justicia
gobierno local
Ecuador

Categorías

Cómo citar

Cisneros, P., & Ilbay-Yupa, M. (2023). How is climate change adaptation aid allocated? A study of climate justice in Ecuador. Revista Desarrollo Y Sociedad, (95), 91–130. https://doi.org/10.13043/DYS.95.3

Resumen

Este artículo analiza la asignación de ayuda para la adaptación climática en jurisdicciones subnacionales y locales en Ecuador. Examina la influencia de la vulnerabilidad física y socioeconómica y la capacidad local como variables independientes de la asignación de la ayuda. El estudio introduce proyecciones de vulnerabilidad física para determinar si se tienen en cuenta los aspectos intergeneracionales de la justicia climática y utiliza modelos de regresión ponderados geográficamente para estudiar la distribución espacial de la asignación de ayuda. Los hallazgos muestran que las vulnerabilidades físicas y socioeconómicas influyen en la asignación de ayuda para la adaptación. Sin embargo, los cambios proyectados en los patrones de precipitación y temperatura no están asociados con esta variable. Además, la distribución espacial de la ayuda climática actual es desigual, dejando desatendidos grupos de jurisdicciones vulnerables. Finalmente, el estudio no encuentra asociación entre la capacidad local y la asignación de ayuda para la adaptación. Los hallazgos sugieren que la tendencia actual puede no contribuir a lograr escenarios de adaptación que sean justos para las generaciones actuales y futuras.

https://doi.org/10.13043/DYS.95.3
PDF (English)
HTML (English)

Citas

Akaike, H. (1974). A New Look at the Statistical Model Identification. IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control, 19 (6): 716–23. https://doi.org/10.1109/tac.1974.1100705.

Amerasinghe, N. M., Thwaites, J., Larsen, G., & Ballesteros, A. (2017). Future of the Funds: Exploring the Architecture of Multilateral Climate Finance. https://www.wri.org/research/future-funds-exploring-architecture-multilateral-climate-finance

Andersson, K. P., & Ostrom, E. (2008). Analyzing decentralized resource regimes from a polycentric perspective. Policy Sciences, 41(1), 71–93. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11077-007-9055-6

Appe, Susan, and Christopher L. Pallas. (2018). Aid Reduction and Local Civil Society: Causes, Comparisons, and Consequences. VOLUNTAS: International Journal of Voluntary and Nonprofit Organizations 29 (2): 245–55. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11266-017-9846-0.

Aranha, A. L. (2017). Accountability, Corruption, and Local Government: Mapping the Control Steps. Brazilian Political Science Review 11 (2): 33–31. https://doi.org/10.1590/1981-3821201700020004.

Barnett, J., & O’Neill, S. (2010). Maladaptation. Global Environmental Change, 20(2), 211–213. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2009.11.004

Barrett, S. (2013). Local level climate justice? Adaptation finance and vulnerability reduction. Global Environmental Change, 23(6), 1819–1829. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2013.07.015

Barrett, S. (2014). Subnational Climate Justice? Adaptation Finance Distribution and Climate Vulnerability. World Development, 58, 130–142. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2014.01.014

Berrang-Ford, L., Ford, J. D., Lesnikowski, A., Poutiainen, C., Barrera, M., & Heymann, S. J. (2014). What drives national adaptation? A global assessment. Climatic Change, 124(1), 441–450. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1078-3

Betzold, C. & Weiler, F. (2017). Allocation of aid for adaptation to climate change: Do vulnerable countries receive more support? International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, 17(1), 17–36. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10784-016-9343-8

Böhmelt, T., Böker, M. & Ward, H. (2016). Democratic inclusiveness, climate policy outputs, and climate policy outcomes. Democratization, 23(7), 1272–1291. https://doi.org/10.1080/13510347.2015.1094059

Bretón, V. (2002). Cooperación al desarrollo, capital social y neo-indigenismo en los Andes ecuatorianos. Revista Europea de Estudios Latinoamericanos y Del Caribe, 73, 43–63.

Brown, K., Kamruzzaman, M., & Beecham, S. (2017). Trends in sub-daily precipitation in Tasmania using regional dynamically downscaled climate projections. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, 10, 18–34. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2016.12.086

Burgos Choez, B. D., Ríos, S. J. & Valle, D. J. (2019). Análisis de la vulnerabilidad a inundaciones de la parroquia Santa Ana de Vuelta Larga, provincia de Manabí, Ecuador. Investigaciones Geográficas, 98. https://doi.org/10.14350/rig.59767

Cadilhac, L., Torres, R., Calles, J., Vanacker, V. & Calderón, E. (2017). Desafíos para la investigación sobre el cambio climático en Ecuador. Neotropical Biodiversity, 3(1), 168–181. https://doi.org/10.1080/23766808.2017.1328247

Carmin, J., Anguelovski, I., & Roberts, D. (2012). Urban Climate Adaptation in the Global South: Planning in an Emerging Policy Domain. Journal of Planning Education and Research, 32(1), 18–32. https://doi.org/10.1177/0739456X11430951

Chiriboga, M. (2015). Las ONG Ecuatorianas En Los Procesos de Cambio. Abya-Yala. Abya-Yala.

Ciotoli, G., Voltaggio, M., Tuccimei, P., Soligo, M., Pasculli, A., Beaubien, S. E., & Bigi, S. (2017). Geographically weighted regression and geostatistical techniques to construct the geogenic radon potential map of the Lazio region: A methodological proposal for the European Atlas of Natural Radiation. Journal of Environmental Radioactivity, 166, 355–375. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvrad.2016.05.010

Dávila, M. J., Villares, G. & Placencia, M. (2018). Recursos financieros de los Gobiernos Autónomos Descentralizados: Caso de estudio Gobiernos Autónomos Descentralizados Municipales. Economía y Negocios, 9(2), 53–70. https://doi.org/10.29019/eyn.v9i2.499

Demoraes, F. and D’Ercole, R. (2001). Cartografía de Las Amenazas de Origen Natural Por Cantón En El Ecuador. Quito: COOPI-Oxfam International-SIISE.

Díaz, L. (2021). “Financiamiento de la Cooperación Internacional para el Cambio Climático en el Ecuador, periodo 2008-2019.” Quito.

Dipendra, K. C. (2020). Which aid targets the poor at the sub-national level? World Development Perspectives, 17, 100177. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wdp.2020.100177

Donner, S. D., Kandlikar, M. and Webber, S. (2016). Measuring and tracking the flow of climate change adaptation aid to the developing world. Environmental Research Letters, 11(5), 054006. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/5/054006

Eakin, H., & Lemos, M. C. (2006). Adaptation and the state: Latin America and the challenge of capacity-building under globalization. Global Environmental Change, 16(1), 7–18. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2005.10.004

Echavarria, M. (2012). Financing watershed conservation: The FONAG water fund in Quito, Ecuador. In Selling Forest environmental services (pp. 105-115). Routledge.

Eriksen, S., Schipper, E. L. F., Scoville-Simonds, M., Vincent, K., Adam, H. N., Brooks, N., Harding, B., Khatri, D., Lenaerts, L., Liverman, D., Mills-Novoa, M., Mosberg, M., Movik, S., Muok, B., Nightingale, A., Ojha, H., Sygna, L., Taylor, M., Vogel, C., & West, J. J. (2021). Adaptation interventions and their effect on vulnerability in developing countries: Help, hindrance or irrelevance? World Development, 141, 105383. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2020.105383

Fotheringham, A. S., Brunsdon, C., & Charlton, M. (2002). Geographically weighted regression: the analysis of spatially varying relationships. John Wiley & Sons.

Fotheringham, A. S., & Oshan, T. M. (2016). Geographically weighted regression and multicollinearity: Dispelling the myth. Journal of Geographical Systems, 18(4), 303–329. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10109-016-0239-5

Garschagen, M., & Doshi, D. (2022). Does funds-based adaptation finance reach the most vulnerable countries? Global Environmental Change, 73, 102450. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2021.102450

Ghani, I. M. & Ahmad, S. (2010). Stepwise Multiple Regression Method to Forecast Fish Landing. Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, 8, 549–554. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sbspro.2010.12.076

Hawkins, D.M. (1973). On the Investigation of Alternative Regressions by Principal Component Analysis. Applied Statistics, 22, 275. https://doi.org/10.2307/2346776

IPCC. (2018). Summary for policymakers, in global warming of 1.5 °C. An IPCC special report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change. In: Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pörtner, H.-O., Roberts, D., Skea, J., Shukla, P.R. (Eds.), Sustainable Development, and Efforts to Eradicate Poverty. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland.

Juhola, S., Glaas, E., Linnér, B.-O., & Neset, T.-S. (2016). Redefining maladaptation. Environmental Science & Policy, 55, 135–140. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2015.09.014

Kauffman, C. M. (2014). Financing watershed conservation: Lessons from Ecuador's evolving water trust funds. Agricultural Water Management, 145, 39-49.

Klauer, B., Manstetten, R., Petersen, T., & Schiller, J. (2013). The art of long-term thinking: A bridge between sustainability science and politics. Ecological Economics, 93, 79–84. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2013.04.018

Lapierre, M., & Aguasantas, M. (2018). Extractivismo, (neo) colonialismo y crimen organizado en el norte de Esmeraldas. Abya-Yala: Quito.

Li, Z., Deng, X., & Zhang, Y. (2021). Evaluation and convergence analysis of socioeconomic vulnerability to natural hazards of Belt and Road Initiative countries. Journal of Cleaner Production, 282, 125406. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.125406

Manuamorn, O. P., Biesbroek, R., & Cebotari, V. (2020). What makes internationally-financed climate change adaptation projects focus on local communities? A configurational analysis of 30 Adaptation Fund projects. Global Environmental Change, 61, 102035. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102035

Mason, M. (2000). Evaluating Participative Capacity-Building in Environmental Policy: Provincial Fish Protection and Parks Management in British Columbia, Canada. Policy Studies 21 (2): 77–98. https://doi.org/10.1080/713691364

Méndez, José Luis. (2020). Políticas Públicas. Enfoque Estratégico Para América Latina. México: Fondo de Cultura Económica.

Mills-Novoa, M., Boelens, R., & Hoogesteger, J. (2022). Chapter 21—Climate change and water justice. In T. M. Letcher (Ed.), Water and Climate Change. 399–418. Elsevier. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-323-99875-8.00014-8

Nalau, J., Preston, B. L., & Maloney, M. C. (2015). Is adaptation a local responsibility? Environmental Science & Policy, 48, 89–98. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2014.12.011

Oliveira, J. (2002). Implementing Environmental Policies in Developing Countries Through Decentralization: The Case of Protected Areas in Bahia, Brazil. World Development, 30(10), 1713–1736. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0305-750X(02)00067-0

Olsson, L., Opondo, M., Tschakert P. (2014). “Livelihoods and Poverty (IPCC Working Group II, Chapter 13).” https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WGIIAR5-Chap13_FINAL.pdf

Ortiz, S., Bastidas, C. & Burbano de Lara, A. (2017). Balance de la Descentralización en el Ecuador: 1998-2016. FLACSO: Quito.

Oshan, T. M., Li, Z., Kang, W., Wolf, L. J., & Fotheringham, A. S. (2019). mgwr: A Python Implementation of Multiscale Geographically Weighted Regression for Investigating Process Spatial Heterogeneity and Scale. ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information, 8(6), Article 6. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijgi8060269

Parra, M. (2019). Racismo Ambiental: Muerte Lenta y Despojo de Territorio Ancestral Afroecuatoriano En Esmeraldas. Íconos - Revista de Ciencias Sociales, no. 64: 89–109. https://doi.org/10.17141/iconos.64.2019.3686.

Pinos, J. & Timbe, L. (2020). Mountain Riverine Floods in Ecuador: Issues, Challenges, and Opportunities. Frontiers in Water, 2, 545880. https://doi.org/10.3389/frwa.2020.545880

Pokorná, L., Kučerová, M., & Huth, R. (2018). Annual cycle of temperature trends in Europe, 1961–2000. Global and Planetary Change, 170, 146–162. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2018.08.015

Pörtner, H. O., Roberts, D. C., Adams, H., Adler, C., Aldunce, P., Ali, E., Begum, R. A., Betts, R., Kerr, R. B., Biesbroek, R., Birkmann, J., Bowen, K., Castellanos, E., Cissé, G., Constable, A., Cramer, W., Dodman, D., Eriksen, S. H., Fischlin, A., … Ibrahim, Z. Z. (2022). Climate change 2022: Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. 12th Session of Working Group II and 55th Session of the IPCC., 12th Session of Working Group II and 55th Session of the IPCC. https://research.wur.nl/en/publications/climate-change-2022-impacts-adaptation-and-vulnerability

Rollenbeck, R., & Bendix, J. (2011). Rainfall distribution in the Andes of southern Ecuador derived from blending weather radar data and meteorological field observations. Atmospheric Research, 99(2), 277-289. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2010.10.018

Saunders, N. (2019). Climate change adaptation finance: are the most vulnerable nations prioritised? Working paper. Stockholm Environment Institute, Stockholm. https://www.sei.org/publications/climate-adaptation-finance-vulnerable-nations/

Savo, V., Lepofsky, D., Benner, J. P., Kohfeld, K. E., Bailey, J., & Lertzman, K. (2016). Observations of climate change among subsistence-oriented communities around the world. Nature Climate Change, 6(5): 462–73. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2958

Scheraga, J. D., and Grambusch, A.E. (1998). Risks, Opportunities and Adaptation to Climate Change. Climate Research 10: 85–89.

Schlosberg, D. and Collins L. B. (2014). From Environmental to Climate Justice: Climate Change and the Discourse of Environmental Justice. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change 5 (3): 359–74. https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.275.

Shah, A., Thompson, T. (2004). Implementing Decentralized Local Governance: A Treacherous Road with Potholes, Detours and Road Closures. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 3353. https://ideas.repec.org/p/wbk/wbrwps/3353.html

Sierra, R., Calva, O., Guevara, A. (2021). La deforestación en el Ecuador, 1990-2018. Factores promotores y tendencias recientes (p. 216). Ministerio de Ambiente y Agua del Ecuador - Ministerio de Agricultura del Ecuador.

Steinberg, Paul F. (2012). Welcome to the Jungle: Policy Theory and Political Instability. In, edited by Paul F Steinberg and Stacy D VanDeveer, 255–312. Comparative Environmental Politics. The MIT Press. Proyecto MUSE. muse.jhu.edu/book/20553 .

Tanner, T., Bisht, H., Quevedo, A., Malik, M., Biswas, S., & Nadiruzzaman, M. (2019). Enabling access to the Green Climate Fund: Sharing country lessons from South Asia (Action Climate Today). Oxford Policy Management. https://doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.35409.79207

Thomson, A.M., Calvin, K.V., Smith, S.J. (2011). RCP4.5: A pathway for stabilization of radiative forcing by 2100. Climatic Change 109: 77. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0151-4

Torres-Batlló, J., & Martí-Cardona, B. (2020). Precipitation trends over the southern Andean Altiplano from 1981 to 2018. Journal of Hydrology, 590: 125485. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.125485

van Wesenbeeck, C. F. A., Sonneveld, B. G. J. S., Voortman, R. L. (2016). Localization and characterization of populations vulnerable to climate change: Two case studies in Sub-Saharan Africa. Applied Geography, 66: 81–91. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2015.11.001

Villacís, B., Carrillo, D., & Martínez, A. G. (2011). Estadística demográfica en el Ecuador: diagnóstico y propuesta. Quito: Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Censos, 1-74.

Vogel, B., Henstra, D. (2015). Studying Local Climate Adaptation: A Heuristic Research Framework for Comparative Policy Analysis. Global Environmental Change 31 (March): 110–20. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.01.001.

Wang, J., Song, C., Reager, J. T., Yao, F., Famiglietti, J. S., Sheng, Y., MacDonald, G. M., Brun, F., Schmied, H. M., Marston, R. A., & Wada, Y. (2018). Recent global decline in endorheic basin water storages. Nature Geoscience, 11(12): 926–32. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-018-0265-7

Warnatzsch, E. A., & Reay, D. (2019). Temperature and precipitation change in Malawi: Evaluation of CORDEX-Africa climate simulations for climate change impact assessments and adaptation planning. Science of The Total Environment 654: 378–392. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.11.098

Warsito, B., Yasin, H., Ispriyanti, D., & Hoyyi, A. (2018). Robust geographically weighted regression of modeling the Air Polluter Standard Index (APSI). Journal of Physics: Conference Series, 1025(1), 012096. https://doi.org/10.1088/1742-6596/1025/1/012096

Weiler, F., Klöck, C. & Dornan, M. (2018). Vulnerability, good governance, or donor interests? The allocation of aid for climate change adaptation. World Development, 104, 65–77. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2017.11.001

Wheeler, D. & Tiefelsdorf, M. (2005). Multicollinearity and correlation among local regression coefficients in geographically weighted regression. Journal of Geographical Systems, 7(2), 161–187. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10109-005-0155-6

Yu, D.-L., Li, W.-J., & Zhou, Y. (2019). Analysis of trends in air temperature at Chinese stations considering the long-range correlation effect. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications, 533, 122034. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2019.122034

Zhou, Q., Wang, C., & Fang, S. (2019). Application of geographically weighted regression (GWR) in the analysis of the cause of haze pollution in China. Atmospheric Pollution Research, 10(3), 835–846. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apr.2018.12.012