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Efectos contagio del Covid-19 a nivel espacial entre municipios: un ejercicio para Antioquia (Colombia) por medio de modelos de Econometría Espacial

No. 97 (2024-06-30)

Resumen

Este artículo cuantifica la capacidad de difusión espacial —efecto spillover espacial— del Covid-19, a escala de municipio para el departamento de Antioquia, Colombia, desde el momento de su propagación en 2020 hasta diciembre de 2021. Para tal efecto, se implementaron modelos de error y rezago espacial que permiten identificar el patrón de los contagios, y clasificar a los municipios en términos de su capacidad de difusión. Los resultados empíricos revelan un patrón espacial característico, condicionado por la distribución de la actividad económica. Además, se encuentra evidencia de una reducción de cerca del 83 % en la capacidad de difusión promedio del virus, asociada al proceso de vacunación ejecutado en el departamento. Los hallazgos son especialmente útiles para el apoyo de políticas públicas comprensivas del entorno geográfico y de las dinámicas económicas, necesarias para la mitigación de epidemias similares y políticas públicas en general.

Palabras clave: efecto spillover espacial, econometría espacial, Covid-19, Medellín, Colombia

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