Up to Date Scenarios for the Offer and Demand of Hydrocarbons in Colombia
Vol. 1 | No. 40 | 2014-01-01Author(s)
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Sandra Leyva(1) Ingeniera de Petróleos. Profesional Especializado de la UPME, sandra.leyva@upme.gov.co
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Beatriz Herrera(2) Magíster en Economía, Política Energética y Ambiental. Subdirectora de Hidrocarburos de la UPME. beatriz.herrera@upme.gov.co
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Ángela Cadena(3) Doctora en Ciencias Económicas y Sociales. Directora General de la UPME. angela.cadena@upme.gov.co
Abstract
In this paper, we present a forecast of Colombia’s hydrocarbons reserves and production for the 2013 to 2015 period. These results are the product of an adjustment conducted by Unidad de Planeación Minero Energética (UPME) of the scenarios generated by Arthur D’Little. This study is based on a methodology of scenario analysis which considers the impact of internal and external factors according to different uncertainty levels and their incidence on the future development of the sector. For these scenarios, the corresponding required investments for their realization are calculated. The analysis results make evident the importance of Colombia’s potential in hydrocarbons. The incorporation of more than 9 billion barrels of oil and 6 tera-cubic feet of natural gas has been forecast. These achievements will depend on the investments in exploration and the development of oil prices as well as on a more efficient management of the associated environmental and social issues.