Colombia Internacional

Colomb. int. | eISSN 1900-6004 | ISSN 0121-5612

El camino hacia la independencia partidista: Una ampliación y ensayo empírico de la perspectiva “Running Tally” en Latinoamérica

No. 96 (2018-10-01)
  • Benjamín Temkin Yedwab
    * Facultad Latinoamericana de Ciencias Sociales (Mexico)
  • Gerardo Isaac Cisneros Yescas
    ** Vanderbilt University (United States)
https://doi.org/10.7440/colombiaint96.2018.01

Resumen

El artículo propone una extensión teórica y empírica de la propuesta de Fiorina sobre la identificación partidista usando datos de América Latina. El argumento principal señala que la independencia partidista es un resultado posible de la evaluación negativa del desempeño del gobierno. Los votantes que evalúan de manera negativa el desempeño del gobierno tienen una mayor probabilidad de no identificarse con algún partido político. El análisis es realizado a través de un modelo probit instrumental que muestra que cuando se controla por la posible causalidad inversa entre la independencia partidista y la evaluación negativa del desempeño del gobierno, es esta última variable la que predice con mayor fortaleza la ausencia de identificación partidista, en contraste incluso con los enfoques sociológico, cultural, de modernización y político-institucional. Finalmente, se presenta una explicación de este fenómeno basada en la teoría del principal-agente.

Palabras clave: Thesaurus: América Latina, perspectiva. Autores: Independencia partidista, Identificación partidista, “running tally”, Fiorina, evaluación del desempeño del gobierno, confianza institucional, modelo de principal-agente

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