O efeito da posição do candidato na cédula de votação. O caso das eleições locais chilenas de 2008 e 2012
No. 96 (2018-10-01)Autor(es)
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Mauricio Morales Quiroga* Universidad de Talca (Chile)
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Ariel Becerra** Universidad Diego Portales (Chile)
Resumo
Analisamos o efeito da posição dos candidatos na cédula de votação sobre seu desempenho eleitoral. Fazemos isso num sistema eleitoral de lista aberta. Utilizamos os resultados das eleições locais chilenas de 2008 e 2012, caracterizadas pela alta fragmentação de partidos e listas de candidatos. Mediante um modelo de regressão linear multivariada com efeitos fixos, concluímos que os eleitores —enfrentados a cédulas de grande tamanho— utilizam as etiquetas partidárias como atalhos informacionais. Logo, os eleitores são mais propensos a votar pelo primeiro nome que aparece na lista de sua coalização ou partido, o que aumenta a probabilidade que esse candidato seja eleito. Portanto, num sistema eleitoral de lista aberta, a posição do candidato na cédula é um fator relevante no momento de explicar o sucesso e o fracasso dos candidatos.
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