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Free Trade Agreements and export duration: Firm-level evidence for Colombia

No. 88 (2021-07-01)
  • Margalida Murillo
  • Cindy Paola Leal
https://doi.org/10.13043/DYS.88.6

Resumen

Este artículo analiza la incidencia de los tratados de libre comercio (TLC) sobre la duración de las exportaciones en Colombia. Con datos a nivel de firma-producto-destino se estimaron modelos de duración en tiempo discreto que permitieron identificar que los TLC inciden negativamente en la probabilidad de cese de las relaciones comerciales activas antes de la entrada en vigor del acuerdo; sin embargo, aumentan el riesgo de salida de aquellas que comienzan después del acuerdo. Este doble efecto es robusto para distintos tipos de productos e, incluso, para exportaciones con certificado de origen. No obstante, las incursiones de firmas que cuentan con al menos un año de experiencia en el sector exportador comportan mayores perspectivas de duración. Se concluye que el rol del aprendizaje y del conocimiento adquirido es clave en el propósito de lograr un mejor aprovechamiento de los acuerdos y maximizar las probabilidades de éxito de las incursiones en los países con TLC.

Palabras clave: acuerdo internacional, comercio internacional, empresa, aprendizaje, Colombia

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