Revista Desarrollo y Sociedad logo

Desarro. soc. | eISSN 1900-7760 | ISSN 0120-3584

Acumulación regulatoria y crecimiento económico: una aproximación empírica para Colombia

No. 97 | 2024-06-30
https://doi.org/10.13043/DYS.97.6

Resumen

Hoy en día no existe un consenso sobre los efectos de la regulación en el crecimiento económico. Aquí se estudia la relación entre regulación y crecimiento económico para Colombia, utilizando datos sobre la acumulación de regulación y el PIB real, en el periodo 1991-2019, para nueve grandes sectores productivos de la economía colombiana. Se estiman diferentes modelos, utilizando técnicas de series de tiempo y datos panel, a fin de presentar evidencia del sector económico. Los resultados revelan que, para algunos sectores, como agropecuario, silvícola, pesca, minería, manufacturas, electricidad, gas y agua, comercio, restaurantes y hoteles, servicios financieros y empresariales y servicios comunales, sociales y personales, se cumple el planteamiento de la existencia de una relación de U invertida, entre la acumulación de regulación y el PIB. Estos resultados ofrecen lecciones importantes para los responsables del diseño y formulación de políticas públicas en temas de mejora regulatoria.

Palabras clave: REGCOL, regulación, crecimiento económico, sectores económicos, series de tiempo, datos panel, Colombia

Referencias

Morelli, M., Ash, E., & Vannoni, M. (2022). More Laws, More Growth? Evidence from U.S. States. CEPR Discussion Papers, Article 15629. https://ideas.repec.org//p/cpr/ceprdp/15629.html

Blanchard, O. & Giavazzi, F. (2003). Macroeconomic effects of regulation and deregulation in goods and labor markets. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 118(3), 879-907. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1162/00335530360698450

Botero, J. C., Djankov, R. L., Porta, F., Lopez & A., Shleifer. (2004). The regulation of labor. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 119(4), 1339-1382. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1162/0033553042476215

Braunerhjelm, P. & J. E. Eklund. (2014). Impuestos, cargas administrativas fiscales y formación de nuevas empresas. Kyklos 67(1), 1-11. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/kykl.12040

Broughel, J. & Hahn, R. (2021). The impact of economic regulation on growth. Survey and synthesis. Regulation & Governance, 16(2), 448-469. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/rego.12376

Ciccone, A. & Papaioannou, E. (2007). La burocracia y la entrada retrasada. Revista de la Asociación Económica Europea 5(2-3), 444-458.

Coffey, B., McLaughlin, P. & Peretto, P. (2016). The cumulative cost of regulations. Review of Economic Dynamics, (38), 1-21. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.red.2020.03.004

Dawson, J. W. & Seater, J. J. (2013). Federal regulation and aggregate economic growth. Journal of Economic Growth, (18), 137-177. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10887-013-9088-y

Dickey, D. A. & Fuller, W. A. (1979). Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(366), 427-431. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1979.10482531

Dickey, D. A. & Fuller, W. A. (1981). Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with unit root. Econometrica, 49(4), 1057-1072. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/1912517

Di Vita, G (2017). Institutional quality and the growth rates of the Italian regions. The costs of regulatory complexity. Papers in Regional Science, 97(4), 1057-1081. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/pirs.12290

Djankov, S., McLiesh, C. y&Ramalho, R. (2006). Regulation and growth. Economics Letters, (92), 395-401. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2006.03.021

Engle, R. & Granger, C. (1987). Co-integration and error correction. Representation, estimation and testing. Econometrica, (55), 251-276. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/1913236

Entorf, H. (1997). Random walks with drifts. Nonsense regression and spurious fixed-effect estimation. Journal of econometrics, (80), 287-296. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(97)00041-9

Fonseca, R., López, P. & Pissarides, C. A. (2001). Entrepreneurship, start-up costs and employment. European Economic Review, 45(4), 692-705. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0014-2921(01)00131-3

Fukumoto, K. (2008). Legislative production in comparative perspective: Cross-sectional study of 42 countries and time-series analysis of the Japan case. Japanese Journal of Political Science, 9(1):1-19. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/S1468109907002794

Haidar, J. I. (2012). The impact of business regulatory reforms on economic growth. Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, 26(3), 285-307. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jjie.2012.05.004

Hopkins, T. D. (1998). Regulatory costs in profile. Policy Sciences 31(4), 301-320. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1004449911745

Im, K., Pesaran, M. & Shin, Y. (2003). Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous Panels. Journal of Econometrics, 115, 53-74. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(03)00092-7

Johansen, S. (1988). Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors. Journal of Econometric Dynamics and Control, 12(2-3), 231-254. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/0165-1889(88)90041-3

Johansen, S. (1991). Estimation and hypothesis testing of cointegration vectors in Gaussian vector autoregressive models. Econometrica, (59), 1551-1580. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/2938278

Kao, C. (1999). Spurious regression and residual-based test for cointegration in panel data. Journal of Econometrics, (90), 1-44. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(98)00023-2

Kwiatkowski, D., Phillips, P., Schmidt, P. & Shin, Y. (1992). Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of unit root. Journal of Econometrics, 54(1-3), 159-178. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(92)90104-Y

Kirchner, S. (2012). Federal legislative activism in Australia. A new approach to testing Wagner’s law. Public Choice, (153), 375-392. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11127-011-9799-6

Levin, A., Lin, C. & Chu, C. (2002). Unit root test in panel data. Asymptotic and finite-sample properties. Journal of Econometrics, (108), 1-24. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(01)00098-7

MacKinnon, J., Haug, A. & Michelis, L. (1999). Numerical distribution functions of likelihood ratio tests for cointegration. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 14(5), 563-77. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1099-1255(199909/10)14:5<563::AID-JAE530>3.0.CO;2-R

Maddala, G. & Wu, S. (1999). A comparative study of unit root test with panel data and a new simple test. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, (61), 631-652. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0084.0610s1631

Mejía, J. L. (2021). Acumulación regulatoria y productividad. Evidencia para Colombia y Estados Unidos (SSRN Scholarly Paper, No. 3821775). https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3821775 DOI: https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3821775

Messaoud, B. & Teheni, E. (2014). Business regulations and economic growth. What can be explained? International Strategic Management Review, 2(2), 69-78. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ism.2014.03.001

Mora, J. & Salvador, S. (2016). El impacto económico de la actividad normativa. Los riesgos de la ‘gran convergencia’. Revista de Economía Industrial, (398), 117-128.

Mulligan, C. & Shleifer, A. (2005). The extent of the market and the supply of regulation. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 120(4), 1445-1473. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1162/003355305775097579

Nicoletti, G. & Scarpetta, S. (2003). Regulation, productivity, and growth: OECD evidence. Economic Policy, 18(36), 9-72. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0327.00102

Niskanen, W. A. (1971). Bureaucracy and representative government. Routledge.

Pedroni, P. (1999). Critical values for cointegration test in heterogeneous panels with multiple regressors. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Special Issue 0305-9049. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0084.61.s1.14

Pedroni, P. (2000). Fully modified OLS for heterogeneous cointegrated panels. Advances in Econometrics, (15), 93-130. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0731-9053(00)15004-2

Pedroni, P. (2004). Panel cointegration: asymptotic y finite sample properties of pooled time series with an application to the PPP hypothesis. New results. Econometric Theory, (20), 597-627. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/S0266466604203073

Phillips, P. & Moon, P. (1999). Linear regression limit theory for nonstationary panel data. Econometrica, 67, 1057-1111. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0262.00070

Phillips, P. & Moon, P. (2000). Nonstationary panel data analysis. An overview of some recent developments. Econometric Reviews, (19), 263-286. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/07474930008800473

Phillips, P. & Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a unit root in time series regression. Biometrika, 75, 147-159. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/75.2.335

Filippini, F., & Zuleta, H. (2016). Inestabilidad tributaria y crecimiento económico en colombia (SSRN Scholarly Paper, No. 2932406). https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2932406 DOI: https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2932406

Licencia

Derechos de autor 2024 Revista Desarrollo y Sociedad

Creative Commons License

Esta obra está bajo una licencia internacional Creative Commons Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 4.0.