Revista Desarrollo y Sociedad logo

Desarro. soc. | eISSN 1900-7760 | ISSN 0120-3584

Demographic dividend and economic growth in Mexico

No. 102 (2026-04-13)
  • Jaime Lara Lara
    Universidad de Monterrey
    ORCID iD: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8704-9824
  • Antonio Alfredo Arizpe Núñez
    Universidad de Monterrey
  • Andrés Marcelo Góngora del Fierro
    Universidad de Monterrey
  • Leonardo Guerra Lozano
    Universidad de Monterrey
  • Fresia Milipza Pérez Garza
    Universidad de Monterrey
  • Luz Paulina Reyes Acevedo
    Universidad de Monterrey
https://doi.org/10.13043/DYS.102.3

Abstract

This article examines the impact of the demographic dividend on economic growth in Mexico. Using panel data for 30 Mexican states from 1990 to 2021, we apply panel data estimations and the System GMM estimator to address endogeneity concerns. Results indicate that demographic dividend alone does not have a statistically significant effect; however, economic growth increases when labor force participation is ensured. Accordingly, policies promoting labor force participation should be implemented, alongside a forward-looking approach to converting the demographic dividend into savings that will increase productive investment.

Keywords: Demographic dividend, demographic transition, economic growth, Mexico

References

Ahmad, M., & Khan, R. E. A. (2019). Does demographic transition with human capital dynamics matter for economic growth? A dynamic panel data approach to GMM. Social Indicators Research, 142(2), 753-772. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11205-018-1928-x

Alba, F., Banegas, I., Giorguli, S., & De Oliveira, O. (2006). El bono demográfico en los programas de las políticas públicas de México (2000-2006): Un análisis introductorio. En La situación demográfica de México (pp. 107-129). Consejo Nacional de Población. https://politicamigratoria.segob.gob.mx/work/ models/PoliticaMigratoria/archivosBibliotecaDi-gital/2041/DESCARGAR_PDF_02041.PDF#page=107

Apella, I. (2021). Demographic dividends and economic growth in Latin America: A low and middle-income trap equilibrium. Revista Económica La Plata, 67(1), 48-68. https://doi.org/10.24215/18521649e020

Arellano, M., & Bover, O. (1995). Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models. Journal of Econometrics, 68(1), 29-51. https:// doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(94)01642-D

Baerlocher, D., Parente, S. L., & Rios-Neto, E. (2019). Economic effects of demographic dividend in Brazilian regions. The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, 14, 100198. https://doi.org/10.1016/j. jeoa.2019.100198

Bhattacharya, G., & Haldar, S. K. (2015). Does demo¬graphic dividend yield economic dividend? India, a case study. Economics Bulletin, 35(2), 1274-1291. http://www.accessecon.com/Pubs/EB/2015/ Volume35/EB-15-V35-I2-P129.pdf

Bloom, D. E., & Canning, D. (2004). Global demographic change: Dimensions and economic significance. Working Paper, 10817. https://doi.org/10.3386/w10817

Bloom, D. E., & Finlay, J. E. (2009). Demographic change and economic growth in Asia. Asian Economic Policy Review, 4(1), 45-64. https://doi. org/10.1111/j.1748-3131.2009.01106.x

Bloom, D. E., & Williamson, J. G. (1998). Demographic transitions and economic miracles in emerging Asia. The World Bank Economic Review, 12(3), 419-455. https://doi.org/10.1093/wber/12.3.419

Bloom, D. E., Canning, D., Fink, G., & Finlay, J. E. (2009). Fertility, female labor force participation, and the demographic dividend. Journal of Economic Growth, 14(2), 79-101. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10887-009-9039-9

Bloom, D. E., Humair, S., Rosenberg, L., Sevilla, J. P., & Trussell, J. (2013). A demographic dividend for sub-Saharan Africa: Source, magnitude, and reali¬zation. IZA Discussion Papers, 7855. https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/90049/1/dp7855.pdf

Blundell, R., & Bond, S. (1998). Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models. Journal of Econometrics, 87(1), 115-143. https://doi. org/10.1016/S0304-4076(98)00009-8

Bloom, D., Canning, D., & Sevilla, J. (2003). The demo¬graphic dividend: A new perspective on the economic consequences of population change. Rand Corporation. https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/monograph_reports/2007/MR1274.pdf

Cayssials, G., German-Soto, V., & Segarra, V. (2023). Population and economic growth in Mexico: Regime dynamics and causality. Latin American Economic Review, 32, 1-25. https://doi.org/10.60758/laer.v32.278

Colagrossi, M., Rossignoli, D., & Maggioni, M. A. (2020). Does democracy cause growth? A meta-analysis (of 2000 regressions). European Journal of Political Economy, 61, 101824. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2019.101824

Consejo Nacional de Población. (2023). Conciliación demográfica de México 1950-2019 y proyecciones de la población de México y las entidades federativas 2020-2070. https://www.gob.mx/conapo/acciones-y-programas/ conciliacion-demografica-de-1950-a-2019-y-proyecciones-de-la-poblacion-de-mexico-y-de-las-entidades-federativas-2020-a-2070

Crespo Cuaresma, J., Lutz, W., & Sanderson, W. (2014). Is the demographic dividend an education dividend? Demography, 51(1), 299-315. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13524-013-0245-x

Crombach, L., & Smits, J. (2022). The demographic window of opportunity and economic growth at sub-national level in 91 developing countries. Social Indicators Research, 161(1), 171-189. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11205-021-02802-8

García-Verdú, R. (2007). Demographics, human capital and economic growth in Mexico, 1950- 2005. Banco Mundial.

Garza-Rodríguez, J., Andrade-Velasco, C., Martínez- Silva, K., Renteria-Rodríguez, F., & Vallejo-Castillo, P. (2016). The relationship between population growth and economic growth in Mexico. Economics Bulletin, 36(1), 97-107. https://papers.ssrn.com/ sol3/Delivery.cfm/SSRN_ID2728681_code1593957. pdf?abstractid=2728681&mirid=1

Giorguli Saucedo, S. E., Vargas Valle, E. D., Salinas Ulloa, V., Hubert, C., & Potter, J. E. (2010). La dinámica demográfica y la desigualdad educativa en México. Estudios Demográficos y Urbanos, 25(1), 7-44. https://www.scielo.org.mx/pdf/educm/v25n1/2448-6515- educm-25-01-7.pdf

Hernández Laos, E. (2004). Desarrollo demográfico y econó¬mico de México, 1970-2000-2030. Consejo Nacional de Población. http://www.conapo.gob.mx/es/CONAPO/ Desarrollo_demografico_y_economico_de_Mexico

Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía. (2025). Encuesta Nacional de Ocupación y Empleo (ENOE), población de 15 años y más. https://www.inegi.org. mx/programas/enoe/15ymas/

Jafrin, N., Mahi, M., Masud, M. M., & Ghosh, D. (2021). Demographic dividend and economic growth in emerging economies: Fresh evidence from the SAARC countries. International Journal of Social Economics, 48(8), 1159-1174. https://doi.org/10.1108/ IJSE-08-2020-0588

Lee, R., & Mason, A. (2006). What is the demo¬graphic dividend? Finance and Development, 43(3), 16-17. https://www.elibrary.imf.org/downloadpdf/ view/journals/022/0043/003/article-A007-en.pdf

Lutz, W., Crespo Cuaresma, J., Kebede, E., Prskawetz, A., Sanderson, W. C., & Striessnig, E. (2019). Education rather than age structure brings demographic divi¬dend. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 116(26), 12798-12803. https://doi.org/10.1073/ pnas.1820362116

Mejía Guevara, I., Vélez Fernández Varela, F., & García López, J. E. (2010). El primer dividendo demográfico y los sistemas de protección social en México. Notas de Población, 90, 133-162. https://repositorio.cepal. org/server/api/core/bitstreams/7920af64-9763- 4281-9511-ebef5e76a0f8/content

Misra, R. (2015). Impact of demographic dividend on economic growth: A study of BRICS and the EU. International Studies, 52(1-4), 99-117. https://doi. org/10.1177/0020881717714685

Mojarro Dávila, O. (2006). Oportunidades y retos de la política nacional de población en el siglo XXI. En La situación demográfica de México (pp. 247-262). Consejo Nacional de Población. https:// politicamigratoria.segob.gob.mx/work/models/ PoliticaMigratoria/archivosBibliotecaDigital/2041/ DESCARGAR_PDF_02041.PDF

Muñoz Arroyave, E. A., Flórez-Laiseca, A. M.ª, & Guerrero Gómez, J. A. (2024). Población rural y desarrollo en América Latina: Análisis de las trans¬formaciones demográficas. Revista Venezolana de Gerencia, 29(12), 872-890. https://doi.org/10.52080/ rvgluz.29.e12.1

Oosthuizen, M., & Magero, J. (2021). Modelling the demo¬graphic dividend: A review of Methodologies. United Nations Population Fund and African Institute for Development Policy. https://esaro.unfpa.org/sites/ default/files/pub-pdf/modelling_the_demographic_ dividend-_a_review_of_methodologies_v5_1.pdf

Parida, J. K., & Madheswaran, S. (2023). Harnessing demographic dividend before it is lost forever in India. The Indian Journal of Labour Economics, 66(1), 61-79. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41027-022-00422-5

Rentería, E., Souto, G., Mejía‐Guevara, I., & Patxot, C. (2016). The effect of education on the demographic dividend. Population and Development Review, 42(4), 651-671. https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.12017

Roodman, D. (2009). How to do xtabond2: An introduction to difference and system GMM in Stata. The Stata Journal, 9 (1), 86-136. https://doi. org/10.1177/1536867X0900900106

Sedano, F. (2008). Economic implications of Mexico’s sudden demographic transition: The next 20 years offer particular risks and opportuni¬ties. Business Economics, 43(3), 40-54. https://doi. org/10.2145/20080304

Videgain, K. (2023). Perspectiva demográfica y empleo. En R. Cordera, A. Sánchez, & E. Provencio (eds.), El mundo del trabajo y el ingreso (pp. 189-234). Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México. https:// doi.org/10.22201/ch.9786073072519e.2023.c6

Williamson, J. G. (2013). Demographic dividends revis¬ited. Asian Development Review, 30(2), 1-25. https:// doi.org/10.1162/ADEV_a_00013

World Bank. (2016). Global Monitoring Report 2015/2016: Development goals in an era of demographic change. https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/ en/782531467993458394/pdf/100530-PUB-Box393232B-PUBLIC-PUBDATE-10-8-15-DOI-10- 1596-978-1-4648-0669-8-EPI-210669.pdf

Young, A. O. (2019). Economic growth and demo¬graphic dividend nexus in Nigeria: A Vector Autoregressive (VAR) approach. Asian Social Science, 15(2), 37-59. https://doi.org/10.5539/ass.v15n2p37

Zhou, J., Deng, J., Li, L., & Wang, S. (2023). The demo¬graphic dividend or the education dividend? Evidence from China’s economic growth. Sustainability, 15(9), 7309. https://doi.org/10.3390/su15097309

License

Copyright (c) 2026 Desarrollo y Sociedad

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.