Políticas de control de oferta de coca: “la zanahoria” y “el garrote”

The interest of evaluating the effectiveness of the policies for eradication and alternative development in the control of the production of the coca leave in Colombia has been expanding, mainly because there is no quantitative evidence related to the effect of the enormous investment made for the application of these policies. In this research, the effects of alternative development and air eradication were simultaneously studied, using municipal data for the period of 1998- 2002 in a model of area assignation for the crops, taking into account the producers’ behavior in relation to the risk of the activity. The results show that the investment in alternative development has a small effect, although it is statistically significant, in the reduction of the areas with cultivated coca. An increasing of US$ 1,000 in projects of alternative development reduces 0.169 hectares of coca. Eradication doesn’t have a statistical effect in the expectations of producers if the variables eradicated area and frequency of eradication are considered. An increasing of US$ 1,000 in efforts of eradication reduces 0.128 hectares of coca, which we can assume that will be cultivated o compensated in another part, inside or outside the municipal area.