Colombia Internacional

Colomb. int. | eISSN 1900-6004 | ISSN 0121-5612

El impacto de la participación en las primarias simultáneas y opcionales en la votación del candidato de la coalición en la elección presidencial: evidencia del sistema de dos vueltas en Chile

No. 118 (2024-04-11)
  • Hugo Jofré
    Universidad San Sebastián (Chile)
    Identificador ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0699-9401
  • Patricio Navia
    New York University (Estados Unidos)
https://doi.org/10.7440/colombiaint118.2024.03

Resumen

Objetivo/contexto: evaluamos el efecto de la participación en las primarias presidenciales de coaliciones multipartidistas en el apoyo electoral al ganador de las primarias en elecciones presidenciales de dos vueltas. ¿Las primarias presidenciales tienen un impacto positivo en la proporción de votos recibidos por el ganador en la elección presidencial correspondiente? Metodología: utilizamos datos a nivel municipal en los tres ciclos electorales (2013-2021) desde la adopción de las primarias presidenciales opcionales en Chile y estimamos modelos de mínimos cuadrados ordinarios (MCO) para evaluar el efecto de la participación electoral en primarias sobre la proporción de votos en las elecciones generales. Conclusiones: identificamos una asociación positiva entre la participación en las primarias y el porcentaje de votos recibido por el candidato de la coalición en las elecciones presidenciales, con un impacto más fuerte en la segunda vuelta que en la primera. Originalidad: a medida que las primarias movilizan a votantes más ideológicos, el efecto de la participación en primarias es más fuerte en la segunda vuelta. En ese momento es más probable que los votantes se alineen con líneas ideológicas claramente definidas, que en la primera vuelta, cuando los votantes normalmente tienen más de una opción que coincida con sus preferencias ideológicas.

Palabras clave: Chile, democracias multipartidista, participación electoral, primarias presidenciales opcionales

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