O impacto da participação em primárias presidenciais simultâneas opcionais na porcentagem de votos para o candidato da coalizão na eleição geral: evidências do sistema de dois turnos do Chile
No. 118 (2024-04-11)Autor(es)
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Hugo JofréUniversidad San Sebastián (Chile)ORCID iD: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0699-9401
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Patricio NaviaNew York University (Estados Unidos)
Resumo
Objetivo/contexto: avaliamos o efeito da participação nas primárias presidenciais de coalizões multipartidárias sobre o apoio eleitoral ao vencedor das primárias em eleições presidenciais de dois turnos. A realização de primárias presidenciais tem um impacto positivo na parcela de votos recebida pelo vencedor das primárias e/ou pelo partido político na eleição presidencial correspondente? Metodologia: usamos dados a nível municipal nos três ciclos eleitorais (2013-2021) desde a adoção de primárias presidenciais opcionais no Chile para estimar modelos de mínimos quadrados ordinários (OLS) e avaliar o efeito da participação nas primárias sobre a parcela de votos na eleição geral. Conclusões: identificamos uma associação positiva entre a participação nas primárias e a parcela de votos para o candidato da coalizão na eleição presidencial, com um impacto maior no segundo turno do que no primeiro. Originalidade: como as primárias mobilizam eleitores mais ideológicos, o efeito da participação nas primárias é mais forte no segundo turno, quando os eleitores têm maior probabilidade de se alinhar de acordo com linhas ideológicas claramente definidas, do que no primeiro turno, quando os eleitores das primárias normalmente têm mais de uma opção que corresponde às suas preferências ideológicas.
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