Diferença ideológica e coordenação estratégica em eleições presidenciais na América Latina
No. 103 (2020-07-01)Autor(es)
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Diego LujánUniversidad de la República (Uruguay)
Resumo
Objetivo/contexto: este artigo estima o efeito da diferença ideológica sobre o nível de coordenação eleitoral em eleições presidenciais na América Latina. A fragmentação dos sistemas de partidos depende, em boa medida, do nível de coordenação eleitoral, a qual é afetada, de acordo com a literatura, pelas regras eleitorais e pela heterogeneidade social. Neste artigo, defende-se a necessidade de considerar o impacto de fatores políticos, como a diferença ideológica, sobre a coordenação eleitoral. Argumenta-se que a diferença ideológica, enquanto atributo da competição programática, aumenta a capacidade das elites políticas e dos votantes para coordenar suas decisões de entrada e de voto, respectivamente. Metodologia: mediante modelos estatísticos, mostra-se que os sistemas que apresentam maior diferença ideológica, medida como polarização ponderada entre os agentes do sistema, demonstram níveis mais altos de coordenação eleitoral, o que redunda em menor fragmentação absoluta e efetiva, maior concentração do voto nos candidatos mais fortes e menor nível de votos desperdiçados. Conclusões: a diferença ideológica entre os partidos em competição afeta significativamente os níveis de coordenação eleitoral, e esse efeito é estável e robusto a controles institucionais e socioestruturais. Os sistemas de partidos estruturados de forma programática e, portanto, ideologicamente diferenciados apresentam maior nível de coordenação eleitoral do que os estruturados sobre apelações não programáticas (clientelistas, personalistas). Originalidade: a fragmentação vem sendo abordada principalmente como o produto dos sistemas eleitorais e da heterogeneidade social, ou como uma combinação de ambos. Contudo, este artigo mostra que, tendo em vista que a fragmentação depende da capacidade de elites e votantes para coordenar suas decisões de entrada e de voto, também é afetada por fatores estritamente políticos, como o grau de diferença ideológica existente.
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