Modelagem de conectividade funcional para espécies guarda-chuva nos Andes colombianos: uma abordagem a partir da teoria dos circuitos e dos modelos de nicho
No. 16 | 27-07-2026Autor(es)
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Eduart Enrique Obando CertucheUniversidad del Cauca (Colombia)ORCID iD: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9679-0382
Resumo
A fragmentação sistemática dos habitats nos Andes colombianos representa uma ameaça crítica à persistência biológica, o que exige estratégias robustas de conectividade funcional que vão além da simples união física dos fragmentos. Por esse motivo, o objetivo desta pesquisa foi elaborar uma proposta técnica de corredores ecológicos. O urso-andino (Tremarctos ornatus), a anta-da-montanha (Tapirus pinchaque) e a onça-parda (Puma concolor) foram escolhidos como espécies guarda-chuva para mitigar o isolamento populacional e favorecer o fluxo genético. Utilizou-se o algoritmo de Máxima Entropia (MaxEnt), por meio do pacote kuenm no R, para criar modelos de distribuição dos táxons, com base nos critérios de AICc para evitar o sobreajuste. Para a identificação dos nós focais, os modelos de distribuição foram integrados e aplicou-se uma análise de densidade de Kernel por meio da localização de núcleos de biodiversidade nos Parques Nacionais Naturais Los Nevados, Las Hermosas, Puracé e no setor da Laguna de la Cocha. A conectividade foi modelada por meio da construção de uma superfície de resistência que incorporou os modelos de distribuição de cada espécie e a pegada espacial humana. Por fim, aplicou-se a teoria dos circuitos utilizando o Linkage Mapper para delimitar trajetórias de menor custo. Os resultados revelaram três corredores principais (1, 2 e 3). Verifica-se que o corredor 1 (Nevados-Hermosas) apresenta a maior permeabilidade biológica com o menor custo de trajetória. Por outro lado, o corredor 3, embora se consolide como a espinha dorsal do fluxo biológico em direção ao sudoeste do país, enfrenta maiores desafios devido à resistência da matriz. Conclui-se que a estabilidade da rede depende da gestão da matriz antropogênica em zonas intermediárias críticas. A originalidade deste artigo consiste na integração multiescala de modelos de nicho e resistência biológica, o que proporciona uma ferramenta técnica de grande impacto para o planejamento do Sistema Nacional de Áreas Protegidas (SINAP) na Colômbia.
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